Iowa Caucus Predictions

It is one week until the Iowa Caucuses so I decided to say what I think is going to happen. The big winners of Iowa are going to be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. In all the polls they are either first or second, so either of them can win it. Romney has continued to downplay expectations in Iowa, so coming in first or second is a big achievement. Also if he wins the victory will go a long way to securing the nomination. Ron Paul was viewed as having a ceiling of 15% of the vote, but now he is showing that it is not the case. A victory especially, but even a second place finish many people did not think possible from such a fringe candidate.

Now it is time for the losers. The person a poor finish is going to hurt the most is Michele Bachmann. She was born in Iowa and won the straw poll back in August. She was betting on strong finishing in Iowa to help her gain momentum, but this seems unlikely. Yes a surprise third place finish would do wonders for her campaign, but I see Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry taking that spot. Almost as bad as Bachmann is Rick Santorum who has spent the most time in Iowa, but has not been able to pick up much traction. If he cannot do well here he may not make it until the South Carolina primary. Other losers are Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. They both have enough money to be able to continue to compete, but still need to do well to try and gain some momentum. This is especially true for Gingrich because if he does bad in Iowa and loses by a large margin to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire his poll numbers will continue to drop and he might lose his lead in South Carolina. If he does then Romney will pretty much be assured the nomination.

There is still a week until voting and this race has shown to be very fluid, with a large number of likely caucus goers saying that they could still change their minds. Right now it is a two man race between Paul and Romney with Paul probably having the slightly better organization, but is also viewed as a fringe candidate. I think I will give the slight edge to Romney.

Ron Paul Could Give Romney a Late Christmas Gift

New poll numbers in Iowa suggest that Gingrich is beginning to fall, and Ron Paul is gaining on him. While Gingrich still leads Romney and Paul are right behind him, and both are better organized in the state, which is important in caucuses. If Paul is able to win, it become even more likely that Romney gets the nomination. Defeat for Gingrich in Iowa could take the wind out of his sails and he could fall back. Also while Ron Paul has a devout following, it is not likely that he will be able to expand his base to challenge the nomination. This will lead Romney to gain support, and Republicans may finally flock to him as the only one who can beat Obama. Of course for this to happen Gingrich must lose, and Romney must win New Hampshire. Romney winning New Hampshire has always been assumed, but lately Gingrich has been rising in the polls. While it is possible, it is not likely. This could still be a long fought race if Gingrich wins South Carolina and Florida, but if his support is beginning to go down and he loses Iowa he could lose support in those states and allow Romney an opportunity to win the nomination early.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-is-mitt-romneys-best-iowa-friend/2011/12/13/gIQA82f3rO_blog.html

Newt Gingrich: His baggage has baggage - Salon.com

If you want to know why Gingrich will be the next Republican flavor of the week read the article below. While Gingrich is a great debater, which is a necessarily skill, (ask Rick Perry)when the public remembers why they did not like Gingrich in the 90's, he will also fall, with nobody else to take his place. Perry has the money to try to make a comeback, but I think he has made too many mistakes to be a real threat.



http://www.salon.com/2011/11/15/newt_gingrich_his_baggage_has_baggage/singleton/

Nevada Debate

With the debate Tuesday I think I would share my thoughts on the candidates performance. This was definitely the most heated of the debates so far. There were many heated exchanges, most of them coming between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. I think Perry did alright to make sure he was not forgotten, but Romney also made him look foolish by shutting down his attacks. Perry also failed to hit Romney a couple times because he would interrupt Romney. Cain really struggled with all of the other candidates targeting his 9-9-9 plan, with the fact that a study came out saying that 84% of Americans would end up paying more taxes. Cain also showed his weakness in foreign affairs when he was forced to admit he made a mistake in an earlier interview about negotiating with terrorists. Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all needed big nights to have a chance at winning the election, and while all of them had good nights, it was nothing close to what they needed. I feel Romney did the best, showing his experience in debates and being able defend most of the attacks his rivals made against him. It was telling of the candidates opinion of Cain winning the nomination, when him and Romney are virtually tied in the polls, but outside the first fifteen minutes Romney was targeted the most. I see Perry moving up slightly, Cain falling so they are about tied. Romney will stay about the same and maybe rise a little. The other candidates will remain about the same. It will be interesting to see if anybody drops out in the next month before the next debate.

Recent Debate

Wow it has been a while since I have updated this blog. After the recent GOP debate I thought I would share my opinion on some of the candidates. The first is Mitt Romney. He is obviously the front runner, and has been the entire race so far. In the debate it was obvious why. It was obvious he knew what he was talking about and looked the most presidential of the candidates. He has experience as both a businessman and a politician, which should help him in the election. Also prior to the debate he gained a key endorsement from new Jersey Governor Chris Christie. With this will come all of the money that many were holding onto in hopes that Christie would run for President.

The next candidate is Herman Cain. The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza is currently the tea party's candidate, but can he avoid being the "flavor of the week" like so many others this year, most recently Rick Perry. I like Herman Cain, but I do not think that he will make a good President. With all of his experience in the private sphere I think he could make a great Vice President, but I don't think he is qualified for President because he has never held a public office. While he is refreshing because he is a little unorthodox, I do not think that will allow him to win the nomination.

Rick Perry really needed to shine in the debate to take some of the momentum back from Herman Cain, but that didn't happen; his string of unimpressive debates continued. I do think that Perry will be able to stick around for a while, and even pass Cain, but I don't see him being able to take on Romney. While he has been a politician for a while, he is not used to the scrutiny that comes from a presidential bid.

Overall I see Romney winning the nomination, one because he has the best chance to beat Obama, but also because Tea Party candidates are rotating so fast they will not be able to collect the money needed to go against Romney who is the sole recipient of the money coming from moderate Republicans.

US Debt

If you ever want to scare yourself, take a look at the US Debt Clock, it is not a fun sight. When you look at the debt you realize it is a big number going up quickly. Right now it is $14.3 trillion dollars, 70% of our GDP. To get out of debt every citizen would have to give up a years income and the government would then have a small surplus. Something that confuses me though is how Japan can have a debt that is almost 200% of their GDP. Wow we really need a president and government, and the whole American people who can step up and realize that the US debt is a real issue, and is way bigger than a couple people getting votes, it is time to not be selfish, maybe some more taxes, but most importantly we need the government to shrink and worry about itself and not trying to take care of every little thing. This is one reason why I believe the tea party is important, and why I like them, even though I may not agree with all of their ideas, the American people need to realize that all of the programs they want cannot be funded, but this needs to happen across the board.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Mitt Romeny

Now finally here is a real candidate, and one that has a good chance of getting the nomination, if not the presidency. After doing some research on Mitt Romney I feel that he can turn this country around, something 70% of Americans want. After turning around the company he worked for, created a company that  would turn others around, saving the Salt Lake City Olympics, and turning around Massachusetts, trying to turn the US around would be his biggest challenge, but one I think he will tackle head on. As Governor of Massachusetts he showed he can make both parties work with each other and get things done. Just like any candidate he has a couple of things against him. One he is LDS, but I do not think this is such a big problem this time around because this has not seemed to hurt him in the polls, but it is too early to tell. Also as Governor of Massachusetts he signed a healthcare bill similar to the one President Obama put into place, but so far he has defended himself well by using the 10th amendment to defend it. Other advantages he has is with his ability to fund raise he should be able to raise more than the other Republicans, and should stay even with Obama. I also think that he is close enough to the Tea Party that he should be able to use them to create enthusiasm, but because he is not closely tied it should not hurt him in the general election. Overall I feel Romney has the ability to gain the GOP nomination, and go toe-to-toe with Obama, and hopefully win.

Sarah Palin

So I decided to do a post on all of the possible GOP contenders that I have some knowledge on, so today I will write about Sarah Palin. During the midterm elections she became the face of the tea party movement, but in recent polls her numbers are unimpressive. She does have an advantage in name recognition, but it has not translated to possible votes in the polls yet. I do like that she seems like a nice normal person, but I do not think she has the experience to lead the country. I also think that her strong ties to the tea party will hurt her in the general election if she made it, as much as I like the tea party movement I do not think that it will be able to elect somebody close to it now because it is too far to the right for independents and centrist democrats. I personally think that Sarah Palin will not run for President, I think that her time in the spotlight has passed, but if she does run I think she does not have the right personality or credentials to make it far.

Donald Trump

Wow it has been a long time since I wrote anything. There has been a lot in the news recently about Donald Trump and the possibility of him running for President. I thought that I would share my opinion on it. First off I think he has done a great job being recognized with his attacks on the President, it gets his name out early and is taking the fight to the President. On the whole issue of whether Obama was born in America I believe he was born in Hawaii, but the question does remain why he does not show his birth certificate. It could be a political ploy to expose it at an opportune time to discredit his opponent if it was brought up, and if that is the case I have to commend Obama for great foresight, but this is not the first time the issue was brought up and the reason to not show it did not really exist at the time. Trump cannot run his campaign on this issue though, and will need to focus on bigger issues, especially in the primaries. Trump can run on the economy which will be a big advantage to him because he is a businessman, but he will have to expand to other issues in the primaries, which will be to his disadvantage. I do wonder how successful somebody could be in the general election to attack Obama on many of the things he got a free pass from the media last year. McCain failed to press his advantage on issues like Obama being friends with Bill Ayers, a terrorist, or attending the church of an anti-American Reverend for over thirty years. I do not think that a campaign can be built off of these, but if pushed with the birth issue it might bring some success.

Political Correctness

We live in an age where we feel forced to be politically correct about everything, in fear that if we say one wrong thing we are going to offend people. After the shooting in Arizona according to CNN it is now politically incorrect to say the word "cross hairs" when talking about politicians. Here is a quote from John King on CNN.


“From before we go to break, I want to make a quick point.  We were just having a discussion about the Chicago mayoral race just a moment ago.  My friend Andy Shaw who now works for a good government group out there used the term in the cross hairs, talking about the candidates out there. We’re trying.  We’re trying to get away from that language.  Andy is a good friend.  He’s covered politics for a long time, but we’re trying to get away from using that kind of language.  We won’t always be perfect.  We try to meet your standards.”

Quote

I found this quote from Thomas Paine that I enjoyed and thought others might also:
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent."

A New Government

In the Declaration of Independence it says:


"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."


This says that if the government has become destructive that the people should do something, but it is their obligation to do something about it. Lucky for us the founders made it easy for us to do this every year to vote new people into office. If the people made sure to check their leaders there would never have to be a big change, the leaders would be forced to stay within their powers. Unfortunately for us in the past this has not been done, allowing our leaders to grow complacent and not worry so much about following the rules. There has been those who have been warning us, but withing the last two years people have beginning waking up and realizing what both political parties have been doing. Lets make it one of our New Years Resolutions to check our government and if they do not do their job properly, do not give them another chance. Our system of government was created on the idea of checks and balances, but the most important one that is often overlooked is the people. Lets use our power to take America back to where she is supposed to be, governed by the people, not politicians with their own agendas.