New poll numbers in Iowa suggest that Gingrich is beginning to fall, and Ron Paul is gaining on him. While Gingrich still leads Romney and Paul are right behind him, and both are better organized in the state, which is important in caucuses. If Paul is able to win, it become even more likely that Romney gets the nomination. Defeat for Gingrich in Iowa could take the wind out of his sails and he could fall back. Also while Ron Paul has a devout following, it is not likely that he will be able to expand his base to challenge the nomination. This will lead Romney to gain support, and Republicans may finally flock to him as the only one who can beat Obama. Of course for this to happen Gingrich must lose, and Romney must win New Hampshire. Romney winning New Hampshire has always been assumed, but lately Gingrich has been rising in the polls. While it is possible, it is not likely. This could still be a long fought race if Gingrich wins South Carolina and Florida, but if his support is beginning to go down and he loses Iowa he could lose support in those states and allow Romney an opportunity to win the nomination early.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-is-mitt-romneys-best-iowa-friend/2011/12/13/gIQA82f3rO_blog.html
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