Iowa Caucus Predictions

It is one week until the Iowa Caucuses so I decided to say what I think is going to happen. The big winners of Iowa are going to be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. In all the polls they are either first or second, so either of them can win it. Romney has continued to downplay expectations in Iowa, so coming in first or second is a big achievement. Also if he wins the victory will go a long way to securing the nomination. Ron Paul was viewed as having a ceiling of 15% of the vote, but now he is showing that it is not the case. A victory especially, but even a second place finish many people did not think possible from such a fringe candidate.

Now it is time for the losers. The person a poor finish is going to hurt the most is Michele Bachmann. She was born in Iowa and won the straw poll back in August. She was betting on strong finishing in Iowa to help her gain momentum, but this seems unlikely. Yes a surprise third place finish would do wonders for her campaign, but I see Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry taking that spot. Almost as bad as Bachmann is Rick Santorum who has spent the most time in Iowa, but has not been able to pick up much traction. If he cannot do well here he may not make it until the South Carolina primary. Other losers are Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. They both have enough money to be able to continue to compete, but still need to do well to try and gain some momentum. This is especially true for Gingrich because if he does bad in Iowa and loses by a large margin to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire his poll numbers will continue to drop and he might lose his lead in South Carolina. If he does then Romney will pretty much be assured the nomination.

There is still a week until voting and this race has shown to be very fluid, with a large number of likely caucus goers saying that they could still change their minds. Right now it is a two man race between Paul and Romney with Paul probably having the slightly better organization, but is also viewed as a fringe candidate. I think I will give the slight edge to Romney.