Romney Makes History

Last night Mitt Romney made history by being the first non-incumbent to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries; and his too victories could not have been more different. In Iowa he won by only eight votes, and it wasn't until two in the morning the results were known. In New Hampshire he was highly favored to win and won by 16% and the race was called early. Now we move to South Carolina where it is the last chance for a candidate to emerge as the true anti-Romney. I personally do not see it happening, the field is too divided and that works in Romney's favor, and it will be hard to stop his momentum.

Iowa Caucus Predictions

It is one week until the Iowa Caucuses so I decided to say what I think is going to happen. The big winners of Iowa are going to be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. In all the polls they are either first or second, so either of them can win it. Romney has continued to downplay expectations in Iowa, so coming in first or second is a big achievement. Also if he wins the victory will go a long way to securing the nomination. Ron Paul was viewed as having a ceiling of 15% of the vote, but now he is showing that it is not the case. A victory especially, but even a second place finish many people did not think possible from such a fringe candidate.

Now it is time for the losers. The person a poor finish is going to hurt the most is Michele Bachmann. She was born in Iowa and won the straw poll back in August. She was betting on strong finishing in Iowa to help her gain momentum, but this seems unlikely. Yes a surprise third place finish would do wonders for her campaign, but I see Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry taking that spot. Almost as bad as Bachmann is Rick Santorum who has spent the most time in Iowa, but has not been able to pick up much traction. If he cannot do well here he may not make it until the South Carolina primary. Other losers are Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. They both have enough money to be able to continue to compete, but still need to do well to try and gain some momentum. This is especially true for Gingrich because if he does bad in Iowa and loses by a large margin to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire his poll numbers will continue to drop and he might lose his lead in South Carolina. If he does then Romney will pretty much be assured the nomination.

There is still a week until voting and this race has shown to be very fluid, with a large number of likely caucus goers saying that they could still change their minds. Right now it is a two man race between Paul and Romney with Paul probably having the slightly better organization, but is also viewed as a fringe candidate. I think I will give the slight edge to Romney.

Ron Paul Could Give Romney a Late Christmas Gift

New poll numbers in Iowa suggest that Gingrich is beginning to fall, and Ron Paul is gaining on him. While Gingrich still leads Romney and Paul are right behind him, and both are better organized in the state, which is important in caucuses. If Paul is able to win, it become even more likely that Romney gets the nomination. Defeat for Gingrich in Iowa could take the wind out of his sails and he could fall back. Also while Ron Paul has a devout following, it is not likely that he will be able to expand his base to challenge the nomination. This will lead Romney to gain support, and Republicans may finally flock to him as the only one who can beat Obama. Of course for this to happen Gingrich must lose, and Romney must win New Hampshire. Romney winning New Hampshire has always been assumed, but lately Gingrich has been rising in the polls. While it is possible, it is not likely. This could still be a long fought race if Gingrich wins South Carolina and Florida, but if his support is beginning to go down and he loses Iowa he could lose support in those states and allow Romney an opportunity to win the nomination early.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-is-mitt-romneys-best-iowa-friend/2011/12/13/gIQA82f3rO_blog.html

Newt Gingrich: His baggage has baggage - Salon.com

If you want to know why Gingrich will be the next Republican flavor of the week read the article below. While Gingrich is a great debater, which is a necessarily skill, (ask Rick Perry)when the public remembers why they did not like Gingrich in the 90's, he will also fall, with nobody else to take his place. Perry has the money to try to make a comeback, but I think he has made too many mistakes to be a real threat.



http://www.salon.com/2011/11/15/newt_gingrich_his_baggage_has_baggage/singleton/

Nevada Debate

With the debate Tuesday I think I would share my thoughts on the candidates performance. This was definitely the most heated of the debates so far. There were many heated exchanges, most of them coming between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. I think Perry did alright to make sure he was not forgotten, but Romney also made him look foolish by shutting down his attacks. Perry also failed to hit Romney a couple times because he would interrupt Romney. Cain really struggled with all of the other candidates targeting his 9-9-9 plan, with the fact that a study came out saying that 84% of Americans would end up paying more taxes. Cain also showed his weakness in foreign affairs when he was forced to admit he made a mistake in an earlier interview about negotiating with terrorists. Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all needed big nights to have a chance at winning the election, and while all of them had good nights, it was nothing close to what they needed. I feel Romney did the best, showing his experience in debates and being able defend most of the attacks his rivals made against him. It was telling of the candidates opinion of Cain winning the nomination, when him and Romney are virtually tied in the polls, but outside the first fifteen minutes Romney was targeted the most. I see Perry moving up slightly, Cain falling so they are about tied. Romney will stay about the same and maybe rise a little. The other candidates will remain about the same. It will be interesting to see if anybody drops out in the next month before the next debate.

Recent Debate

Wow it has been a while since I have updated this blog. After the recent GOP debate I thought I would share my opinion on some of the candidates. The first is Mitt Romney. He is obviously the front runner, and has been the entire race so far. In the debate it was obvious why. It was obvious he knew what he was talking about and looked the most presidential of the candidates. He has experience as both a businessman and a politician, which should help him in the election. Also prior to the debate he gained a key endorsement from new Jersey Governor Chris Christie. With this will come all of the money that many were holding onto in hopes that Christie would run for President.

The next candidate is Herman Cain. The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza is currently the tea party's candidate, but can he avoid being the "flavor of the week" like so many others this year, most recently Rick Perry. I like Herman Cain, but I do not think that he will make a good President. With all of his experience in the private sphere I think he could make a great Vice President, but I don't think he is qualified for President because he has never held a public office. While he is refreshing because he is a little unorthodox, I do not think that will allow him to win the nomination.

Rick Perry really needed to shine in the debate to take some of the momentum back from Herman Cain, but that didn't happen; his string of unimpressive debates continued. I do think that Perry will be able to stick around for a while, and even pass Cain, but I don't see him being able to take on Romney. While he has been a politician for a while, he is not used to the scrutiny that comes from a presidential bid.

Overall I see Romney winning the nomination, one because he has the best chance to beat Obama, but also because Tea Party candidates are rotating so fast they will not be able to collect the money needed to go against Romney who is the sole recipient of the money coming from moderate Republicans.

US Debt

If you ever want to scare yourself, take a look at the US Debt Clock, it is not a fun sight. When you look at the debt you realize it is a big number going up quickly. Right now it is $14.3 trillion dollars, 70% of our GDP. To get out of debt every citizen would have to give up a years income and the government would then have a small surplus. Something that confuses me though is how Japan can have a debt that is almost 200% of their GDP. Wow we really need a president and government, and the whole American people who can step up and realize that the US debt is a real issue, and is way bigger than a couple people getting votes, it is time to not be selfish, maybe some more taxes, but most importantly we need the government to shrink and worry about itself and not trying to take care of every little thing. This is one reason why I believe the tea party is important, and why I like them, even though I may not agree with all of their ideas, the American people need to realize that all of the programs they want cannot be funded, but this needs to happen across the board.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Mitt Romeny

Now finally here is a real candidate, and one that has a good chance of getting the nomination, if not the presidency. After doing some research on Mitt Romney I feel that he can turn this country around, something 70% of Americans want. After turning around the company he worked for, created a company that  would turn others around, saving the Salt Lake City Olympics, and turning around Massachusetts, trying to turn the US around would be his biggest challenge, but one I think he will tackle head on. As Governor of Massachusetts he showed he can make both parties work with each other and get things done. Just like any candidate he has a couple of things against him. One he is LDS, but I do not think this is such a big problem this time around because this has not seemed to hurt him in the polls, but it is too early to tell. Also as Governor of Massachusetts he signed a healthcare bill similar to the one President Obama put into place, but so far he has defended himself well by using the 10th amendment to defend it. Other advantages he has is with his ability to fund raise he should be able to raise more than the other Republicans, and should stay even with Obama. I also think that he is close enough to the Tea Party that he should be able to use them to create enthusiasm, but because he is not closely tied it should not hurt him in the general election. Overall I feel Romney has the ability to gain the GOP nomination, and go toe-to-toe with Obama, and hopefully win.

Sarah Palin

So I decided to do a post on all of the possible GOP contenders that I have some knowledge on, so today I will write about Sarah Palin. During the midterm elections she became the face of the tea party movement, but in recent polls her numbers are unimpressive. She does have an advantage in name recognition, but it has not translated to possible votes in the polls yet. I do like that she seems like a nice normal person, but I do not think she has the experience to lead the country. I also think that her strong ties to the tea party will hurt her in the general election if she made it, as much as I like the tea party movement I do not think that it will be able to elect somebody close to it now because it is too far to the right for independents and centrist democrats. I personally think that Sarah Palin will not run for President, I think that her time in the spotlight has passed, but if she does run I think she does not have the right personality or credentials to make it far.

Donald Trump

Wow it has been a long time since I wrote anything. There has been a lot in the news recently about Donald Trump and the possibility of him running for President. I thought that I would share my opinion on it. First off I think he has done a great job being recognized with his attacks on the President, it gets his name out early and is taking the fight to the President. On the whole issue of whether Obama was born in America I believe he was born in Hawaii, but the question does remain why he does not show his birth certificate. It could be a political ploy to expose it at an opportune time to discredit his opponent if it was brought up, and if that is the case I have to commend Obama for great foresight, but this is not the first time the issue was brought up and the reason to not show it did not really exist at the time. Trump cannot run his campaign on this issue though, and will need to focus on bigger issues, especially in the primaries. Trump can run on the economy which will be a big advantage to him because he is a businessman, but he will have to expand to other issues in the primaries, which will be to his disadvantage. I do wonder how successful somebody could be in the general election to attack Obama on many of the things he got a free pass from the media last year. McCain failed to press his advantage on issues like Obama being friends with Bill Ayers, a terrorist, or attending the church of an anti-American Reverend for over thirty years. I do not think that a campaign can be built off of these, but if pushed with the birth issue it might bring some success.

Political Correctness

We live in an age where we feel forced to be politically correct about everything, in fear that if we say one wrong thing we are going to offend people. After the shooting in Arizona according to CNN it is now politically incorrect to say the word "cross hairs" when talking about politicians. Here is a quote from John King on CNN.


“From before we go to break, I want to make a quick point.  We were just having a discussion about the Chicago mayoral race just a moment ago.  My friend Andy Shaw who now works for a good government group out there used the term in the cross hairs, talking about the candidates out there. We’re trying.  We’re trying to get away from that language.  Andy is a good friend.  He’s covered politics for a long time, but we’re trying to get away from using that kind of language.  We won’t always be perfect.  We try to meet your standards.”

Quote

I found this quote from Thomas Paine that I enjoyed and thought others might also:
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent."

A New Government

In the Declaration of Independence it says:


"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."


This says that if the government has become destructive that the people should do something, but it is their obligation to do something about it. Lucky for us the founders made it easy for us to do this every year to vote new people into office. If the people made sure to check their leaders there would never have to be a big change, the leaders would be forced to stay within their powers. Unfortunately for us in the past this has not been done, allowing our leaders to grow complacent and not worry so much about following the rules. There has been those who have been warning us, but withing the last two years people have beginning waking up and realizing what both political parties have been doing. Lets make it one of our New Years Resolutions to check our government and if they do not do their job properly, do not give them another chance. Our system of government was created on the idea of checks and balances, but the most important one that is often overlooked is the people. Lets use our power to take America back to where she is supposed to be, governed by the people, not politicians with their own agendas.

The New Start Treaty

The Obama administration is trying to push through a treaty with Russia that will reduce the number of nuclear weapons each country has. This may sound nice, but a little bit of logic tells us that this will put our national security at risk. Right now we are not enemies with Russia, and we are not worried about them attacking us. On the other hand North Korea and Iran do have nuclear weapons, and we are worried about them attacking us. Who in their right mind would reduce the number of nuclear weapons we have while our enemies are continuing to build more. Obama may think he is making the world a safer place by getting rid of nuclear weapons, which he may in the short term, but in the long run he is really making it more dangerous for America and all of her allies.

Debt

What do the the economies prior to the Great Depression, our current recession, and our government have in common? All three of these were run by debt. Right before the Great Depression credit was becoming popular, and families were buying everything on credit, even stocks. Just like in the current recession once the stock market crashed and people lost jobs, it spread because people had so much debt. In the current recession many people try to blame the banks for faulty loans, but the bottom line is when you sign you name, you better know what you are getting yourself into, if you even bothered to read the contract. Now our country has a national debt of over $14 trillion. We need to make sure we hold our leaders to being fiscally responsible. Most politicians do not care about the debt because if they try to cut programs, it will become hard to be reelected. The politicians that do not care about reelection are the ones we should rally around, because they are the ones who are going to try to help our country, not the others who do not care about this country's future.

Charles Rangel

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/nyregion/17rangel.html?src=me

Charles Rangel was found guilty of eleven counts of ethics violations by a congressional subcommittee. This includes "forgetting" to pay taxes on $60,000 on rent income, and not reporting hundreds of thousands of dollars in personal assets. During his trial he walked out and went into his office and began working. The next day after the subcommittee announced their decision the congressman said: “How can anyone have confidence in the decision of the ethics subcommittee when I was deprived of due process rights, right to counsel and was not even in the room?” Was he hoping to delay the process two more years by walking out of the hearing? How is it that the very people who create taxes are allowed to not pay them by only punishing them with a "letter of reprimand or a formal censure." The American people should not allow these types of people to govern us, but somehow they still make it into our government and stay there. The even worse part is that conveniently the hearing was put off until after election day. What a difference from Thomas Jefferson who did not know if the Louisiana purchase was constitutional so he let the American people vote on it by proposing it before his election. 

California school boy ordered to remove U.S. flag from bike - Spokane conservative | Examiner.com

California school boy ordered to remove U.S. flag from bike - Spokane conservative | Examiner.com

Yes this headline is right, and very confusing. Political correctness has been spreading, but now it has gone to far. How can a boy be asked to not show his patriotism in his own country, especially on the same week of Veteran's Day? I do think someone needs to have a talk with the school officials and remind them that the live in the United States of America. I believe it is a sign that political correctness has gone to far when we cannot even show our pride for this great nation we live in. I understand the school wants to eliminate racial tensions, but since when has the U.S. Flag been a symbol for any race? The Flag is a symbol of hope for a better life for all people, no matter who you are.

Republicans Against the Tea Party

It makes me laugh when some Republicans blame the Tea Party for not winning the Senate because some of their candidates did not win in states where a Moderate Republican would have won easily. This is true, but do they think that so many people would have voted, or have been as enthusiastic if it was not for the Tea Party. The Tea Party was a sign of hope for many conservative Americans, that it does not always have to be a choice between two evils on Election Day. The Tea Party gave Republicans the grassroots they needed, especially after being swept by Obama last election because he was able to connect to people. Yes the Republican Party would have won, but it would not be nearly as big if it were not for the Tea Party.

� GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus Lashes Out at Tea Party, Sarah Palin - Big Government

The Next Two Years

The big question for the second half of Obama's term as president is how he is going to change his politics. This last year President Obama had very little to do with the Republicans since he had a majority in both houses he did not need to make anything bipartisan. Now it will be interesting to see if he will move towards the middle like Clinton did after his first midterm in 1994. I think the Tea Party is going to be his biggest challenge, especially after he still underestimates them. He said that his "shellacking" was because people were unhappy with the economy, which is true, but 40% of Americans said that they agree with the Tea Party. This shows that people are not just tired of the economy, but government in general.

Obamacare

Last night on 60 Minutes President Obama was talking about his healthcare system, and he was already starting the 2012 campaign. Obama said Mitt Romney was running for president, even though Romney has yet to declare he is running. Obama also said that his healthcare system was based off the one Romney put into place while he was governor of Massachusetts. Obama knows the American people hate his new system, and he is trying to put blame on a possible opponent while trying to tie any possible Republican to it. Last week on the Sean Hannity show Romney was able to defend his system. He admitted it was an experiment and that there were some flaws with it, but he also pointed out that it was in his legal right to do so. He pointed out on the other hand that Democrats took the system from one state and applied it to the entire country, when the Constitution never gave them that right. Romney was also surprised that nobody had asked for his opinion, when supposedly it was based off his idea. It looks like Obama is ready to hit the campaign trail again, but for himself this time. I am surprised that he was willing to start so soon with his "shellacking" last week.

I predict that in the next two years the following is going to happen with Obamacare:
The Republicans are going to get it repealed, and when that fails they will work with Democrats to try to fix parts of it.
I also think that at least one state lawsuit against it will reach the Supreme Court, and they will find that the government cannot force people to buy health insurance, and Congress will the vote to repeal the law.
Maybe this is all wishful thinking, but I think there is a good chance the Supreme Court will overturn the law.