Romney Makes History

Last night Mitt Romney made history by being the first non-incumbent to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries; and his too victories could not have been more different. In Iowa he won by only eight votes, and it wasn't until two in the morning the results were known. In New Hampshire he was highly favored to win and won by 16% and the race was called early. Now we move to South Carolina where it is the last chance for a candidate to emerge as the true anti-Romney. I personally do not see it happening, the field is too divided and that works in Romney's favor, and it will be hard to stop his momentum.

Iowa Caucus Predictions

It is one week until the Iowa Caucuses so I decided to say what I think is going to happen. The big winners of Iowa are going to be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. In all the polls they are either first or second, so either of them can win it. Romney has continued to downplay expectations in Iowa, so coming in first or second is a big achievement. Also if he wins the victory will go a long way to securing the nomination. Ron Paul was viewed as having a ceiling of 15% of the vote, but now he is showing that it is not the case. A victory especially, but even a second place finish many people did not think possible from such a fringe candidate.

Now it is time for the losers. The person a poor finish is going to hurt the most is Michele Bachmann. She was born in Iowa and won the straw poll back in August. She was betting on strong finishing in Iowa to help her gain momentum, but this seems unlikely. Yes a surprise third place finish would do wonders for her campaign, but I see Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry taking that spot. Almost as bad as Bachmann is Rick Santorum who has spent the most time in Iowa, but has not been able to pick up much traction. If he cannot do well here he may not make it until the South Carolina primary. Other losers are Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry. They both have enough money to be able to continue to compete, but still need to do well to try and gain some momentum. This is especially true for Gingrich because if he does bad in Iowa and loses by a large margin to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire his poll numbers will continue to drop and he might lose his lead in South Carolina. If he does then Romney will pretty much be assured the nomination.

There is still a week until voting and this race has shown to be very fluid, with a large number of likely caucus goers saying that they could still change their minds. Right now it is a two man race between Paul and Romney with Paul probably having the slightly better organization, but is also viewed as a fringe candidate. I think I will give the slight edge to Romney.

Ron Paul Could Give Romney a Late Christmas Gift

New poll numbers in Iowa suggest that Gingrich is beginning to fall, and Ron Paul is gaining on him. While Gingrich still leads Romney and Paul are right behind him, and both are better organized in the state, which is important in caucuses. If Paul is able to win, it become even more likely that Romney gets the nomination. Defeat for Gingrich in Iowa could take the wind out of his sails and he could fall back. Also while Ron Paul has a devout following, it is not likely that he will be able to expand his base to challenge the nomination. This will lead Romney to gain support, and Republicans may finally flock to him as the only one who can beat Obama. Of course for this to happen Gingrich must lose, and Romney must win New Hampshire. Romney winning New Hampshire has always been assumed, but lately Gingrich has been rising in the polls. While it is possible, it is not likely. This could still be a long fought race if Gingrich wins South Carolina and Florida, but if his support is beginning to go down and he loses Iowa he could lose support in those states and allow Romney an opportunity to win the nomination early.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/ron-paul-is-mitt-romneys-best-iowa-friend/2011/12/13/gIQA82f3rO_blog.html

Newt Gingrich: His baggage has baggage - Salon.com

If you want to know why Gingrich will be the next Republican flavor of the week read the article below. While Gingrich is a great debater, which is a necessarily skill, (ask Rick Perry)when the public remembers why they did not like Gingrich in the 90's, he will also fall, with nobody else to take his place. Perry has the money to try to make a comeback, but I think he has made too many mistakes to be a real threat.



http://www.salon.com/2011/11/15/newt_gingrich_his_baggage_has_baggage/singleton/

Nevada Debate

With the debate Tuesday I think I would share my thoughts on the candidates performance. This was definitely the most heated of the debates so far. There were many heated exchanges, most of them coming between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. I think Perry did alright to make sure he was not forgotten, but Romney also made him look foolish by shutting down his attacks. Perry also failed to hit Romney a couple times because he would interrupt Romney. Cain really struggled with all of the other candidates targeting his 9-9-9 plan, with the fact that a study came out saying that 84% of Americans would end up paying more taxes. Cain also showed his weakness in foreign affairs when he was forced to admit he made a mistake in an earlier interview about negotiating with terrorists. Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum all needed big nights to have a chance at winning the election, and while all of them had good nights, it was nothing close to what they needed. I feel Romney did the best, showing his experience in debates and being able defend most of the attacks his rivals made against him. It was telling of the candidates opinion of Cain winning the nomination, when him and Romney are virtually tied in the polls, but outside the first fifteen minutes Romney was targeted the most. I see Perry moving up slightly, Cain falling so they are about tied. Romney will stay about the same and maybe rise a little. The other candidates will remain about the same. It will be interesting to see if anybody drops out in the next month before the next debate.

Recent Debate

Wow it has been a while since I have updated this blog. After the recent GOP debate I thought I would share my opinion on some of the candidates. The first is Mitt Romney. He is obviously the front runner, and has been the entire race so far. In the debate it was obvious why. It was obvious he knew what he was talking about and looked the most presidential of the candidates. He has experience as both a businessman and a politician, which should help him in the election. Also prior to the debate he gained a key endorsement from new Jersey Governor Chris Christie. With this will come all of the money that many were holding onto in hopes that Christie would run for President.

The next candidate is Herman Cain. The former CEO of Godfather's Pizza is currently the tea party's candidate, but can he avoid being the "flavor of the week" like so many others this year, most recently Rick Perry. I like Herman Cain, but I do not think that he will make a good President. With all of his experience in the private sphere I think he could make a great Vice President, but I don't think he is qualified for President because he has never held a public office. While he is refreshing because he is a little unorthodox, I do not think that will allow him to win the nomination.

Rick Perry really needed to shine in the debate to take some of the momentum back from Herman Cain, but that didn't happen; his string of unimpressive debates continued. I do think that Perry will be able to stick around for a while, and even pass Cain, but I don't see him being able to take on Romney. While he has been a politician for a while, he is not used to the scrutiny that comes from a presidential bid.

Overall I see Romney winning the nomination, one because he has the best chance to beat Obama, but also because Tea Party candidates are rotating so fast they will not be able to collect the money needed to go against Romney who is the sole recipient of the money coming from moderate Republicans.

US Debt

If you ever want to scare yourself, take a look at the US Debt Clock, it is not a fun sight. When you look at the debt you realize it is a big number going up quickly. Right now it is $14.3 trillion dollars, 70% of our GDP. To get out of debt every citizen would have to give up a years income and the government would then have a small surplus. Something that confuses me though is how Japan can have a debt that is almost 200% of their GDP. Wow we really need a president and government, and the whole American people who can step up and realize that the US debt is a real issue, and is way bigger than a couple people getting votes, it is time to not be selfish, maybe some more taxes, but most importantly we need the government to shrink and worry about itself and not trying to take care of every little thing. This is one reason why I believe the tea party is important, and why I like them, even though I may not agree with all of their ideas, the American people need to realize that all of the programs they want cannot be funded, but this needs to happen across the board.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/